Author:: [[David Perell]] topic:: [[Cognitive Biases]] related:: [[Aphorisms to live by]]
Avoid competition. Stop copying what everybody else is doing. If you work at a for-profit company, work on problems that would not otherwise be solved. If you’re at a non-profit, fix unpopular problems. Life is easier when you don’t compete. (Hint: don’t start another bottled water company)
This idea comes from poker, where you’re advised to choose your opponents carefully. That means you shouldn’t compete against the best people. You don’t need to get good at doing difficult things if you get good at avoiding difficult things. If you want to win, pick an easy table and nail your execution. — via 50 Ideas That Changed My Life — David Perell
A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. A complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be patched up to make it work. You have to start over with a working simple system.
“A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. The inverse proposition also appears to be true: a complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be made to work. You have to start over, beginning with a simple system.” - John Gall #quote
Work expands to fill the time available. People don’t want to look like they’re lazy, so they find extra tasks to tackle, even if they’re trivial. If you have six months to complete a project, it will take six months to complete. Set deadlines accordingly.
Focus isn’t as constraining as it seems. In the age of the Internet, "when everybody has Google search and personalized social media feeds, differentiation is free marketing". "The more specific your goal, the more opportunities you’ll create for yourself." Narrowing your aperture can expand your horizons.'
If there are multiple explanations for why something happened and they are equally persuasive, assume the simplest one is true. In the search for truth, remove unnecessary assumptions. Trust the lowest-complexity answer. Related:
The opposite of [[Occams Razor]]. In a complex system, problems usually have more than one cause. For example, in medicine, people can have many diseases at the same time.
A low dose of something can have the opposite effect of a high dose. A little bit of stress wakes you up, but a lot of stress is bad for you. Lifting weights for 30 minutes per day is good for you, but lifting weights for 6 hours per day will destroy your muscles. Stress yourself, but not too much. related:: [[eustress]] [[../Notes/Roam Daily - July 19th, 2020]]
Be conservative in what you do, be liberal in what you accept from others. It’s a design guideline for software and a good rule for life: Hold yourself to a higher standard than you hold others to.
Extreme opposites tend to look the same. For example, a far-right movement and a far-left movement can be equally violent or desire a similar outcome. People on both sides are more similar to each other than they are to people in the center.
A self-reinforcing cycle that creates collective beliefs. An idea will gain traction once it enters the mainstream, which triggers a chain reaction, which causes lots of people to adopt it not because it’s true but because it’s popular
Change starts away from the spotlight. Then, it moves towards the center. That’s why the most interesting ideas at a conference never come from the main stage. They come from the hallways and the bar after sunset #creativity
The more we learn about astronomy, the less it seems that earth is special. It's a small part of the universe, and each human is a small part of the earth. We are all spinning through the solar system — nowhere near the beginning or end of time.
- opposite of the [[anthropic principle]]?
- Related: [[principle of mediocrity]]
Corporations reward conformity, but the Internet rewards people who are unique. If you work in a creative field, strive to be the only person who does what you do. Find your own style, then run with it. Create intellectual real estate for yourself.
Under ancient Jewish law, if a suspect was found guilty by every judge, they were deemed innocent. Too much agreement implied a systemic error in the judicial process. Unanimous agreement sometimes leads to bad decisions.
Notes:: [[Ibsen]] #quote "Flertallet tar alltid feil" like I remember it, or "Flertallet har aldri retten på sin side, sier jeg! - Henrik Ibsen #quote"
related:: [[The paradox of consensus and ibsen]]
Markets aggregate knowledge. Rising prices signal falling supply or increased demand, which incentivizes an increase in production. The opposite is true for falling prices. Prices are a signal wrapped in an incentive.
notes:: unpack "Prices are a signal wrapped in an incentive" #Research
The average outcome for an event over time. They're like batting averages for life, and they work best with bigsample sizes. For example, if you’re starting a business, avoid the restaurant business where margins are low and competition is high. Related:
Define the limits of your knowledge. Hint: the limits are smaller than you think. That’s because being an expert in one area doesn’t make you an expert in anything else. Be clear about what you know and don’t know.
If you want to be lucky, look for opportunities with big upsides and low downsides. In addition to increased optionality, your errors will benefit you more than they harm you. Convex payoffs let you tinker your way to success and innovation. - Nassim Taleb
When we have a problem, our natural instinct is to add a new habit or purchase a fix. But sometimes, you can improve your life by taking things away. For example, the foods you avoid are more important than the foods you eat. #addiction Thought: [[not doing drugs is more important than taking vitamins]]
We pay too much attention to what is being said. But the medium of communication is more impactful. For example, the Internet’s impact on humanity has a bigger influence than anything that’s said on the Internet.
Thought:: Makes me think... about metacognition and psychedelics - the fact that consciousness is so malleable is more worthy of looking into than the specifics of the experience, i.e. maybe the self dribbling machine elves are not so important, but the fact that they appear, that we twist our prception to make them real is.
The average quality of information is getting worse and worse. But the best stuff is getting better and better. Markets of abundance are simultaneously bad for the median consumer but good for conscious consumers.